Last updated July 7, 2009 2:48 p.m. PT

Satellite shows big thinning of old Arctic sea ice

By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP SCIENCE WRITER

WASHINGTON — New NASA satellite measurements show that sea ice in the Arctic is more than just shrinking in area, it is dramatically thinning.

The volume of older crucial sea ice in the Arctic has shrunk by 57 percent from the winter of 2004 to 2008. That’s losing more volume of ice than water in Lake Michigan.

NASA scientist Jay Zwally said global warming is to blame. He said rapidly shrinking sea ice in the Arctic warms the rest of the globe indirectly. Older ice is more important in the Arctic because it is thicker, surviving the heat of summer and building over time.

Gore: Deal on Emissions from Land Useage Change Critical

Published on Tuesday, July 7, 2009 by The Times Online/UK

by Robin Pagnamenta, Energy Editor and Ben Webster, Environment Editor

A global deal to cap surging emissions of carbon dioxide from soil will form a critical part of any successful agreement to tackle climate change in Copenhagen later this year, Al Gore said today.

The former US Vice President and environmental campaigner urged world leaders who are set to gather for a UN meeting in the Danish capital in December to recognise the critical importance of soil carbon: an often overlooked part of the debate on global warming.

“There is three times as much carbon in the first two meters of soil than there is in all of the world’s vegetation,” he told an environmental conference at the Smith School in Oxford.

Current estimates indicate that changing land use – including the burning of peatland, the conversion of degraded former forest land to agriculture and desertification through over-farming – is responsible for as much as 30 per cent of the world’s carbon emissions, more than either deforestation, power generation or transport.

Mr Gore cited the example of Indonesia, the world’s third largest emitter of carbon dioxide after China and the US.

He said Indonesia’s high level of emissions were chiefly the result of soil degradation rather than the linked but distinct problem of deforestation.

“Brazil cuts down twice as many trees as Indonesia but Indonesia emits twice as much carbon dioxide as Brazil.”

Much of Indonesia’s tropical rainforest lies on peat soil. After the trees have been cut, the peat is often burnt before the land can be reused – mostly for the creation of palm oil plantations.

The practice releases vast amounts of carbon into the atmosphere and each burning season leaves plumes of smoke hanging over much of southeast Asia for months at a time.
The greenhouse effect is compounding the problem of soil degradation because rising temperatures add to the drying and destruction of carbon-rich soils.

Mr Gore said China was leading the way in trying to “recarbonise” degraded soil through tree planting – an effort which he said needed to intensify globally.

“China now plants two and a half times more trees than the rest of the world put together,” he said.

“Every Chinese citizen between the ages of 6 and 60 has to plant three trees a year.” Soil is the third-largest natural store of carbon in the world after the oceans and fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

Mr Gore expressed optimism that the vast challenge of cutting emissions remained feasible.

“Time is short. Today we will put 70 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the thin shell of the atmosphere surrounding the planet [but] there is no question that we can solve this crisis.”

Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.

Loss of World’s Seagrass Beds Seen Accelerating

Published on Friday, July 3, 2009 by Reuters

by Jim Loney

MIAMI – The world’s seagrass meadows, a critical habitat for marine life and profit-maker for the fishing industry, are in decline due to coastal development and the losses are accelerating, according to a new study.

A fishing boat is moored in waters near Nueva Valencia town, Guimaras Island, September 12, 2006. REUTERS/Leo Solinap
Billed as the first comprehensive global assessment of seagrass losses, the study found 58 percent of seagrass meadows are declining and the rate of annual loss has accelerated from about 1 percent per year before 1940 to 7 percent per year since 1990.

Published this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study, based on more than 200 surveys and 1,800 observations dating back to 1879, found that seagrasses are disappearing at rates similar to coral reefs and tropical rainforests.

“Seagrasses are disappearing because they live in the same kind of environments that attract people,” James Fourqurean, a professor at Florida International University and a co-author of the study, said in an e-mailed response to questions.

“They live in shallow areas protected from large storm waves, and they are especially prevalent in bays and around river mouths.”

Scientists say seagrass processes waste dumped into the sea, helps stabilize ocean-bottom sediments in coastal areas to reduce erosion, provide nurseries for fish and shellfish and feeding grounds for larger marine creatures, including those that live in coral reefs.

But the grasses can be damaged by polluted water from coastal development, decreasing water clarity, and by dredging and filling of meadows.

The scientists also said global climate change “is predicted to have deleterious effects on seagrasses.” Many scientists believe greenhouse gases are causing the world to warm, leading to a host of environmental effects including warming and rising oceans.

‘ECONOMICALLY AND ECOLOGICALLY IMPORTANT’

Seagrass meadows are important food fisheries and host gamefish like tarpon, permit and bonefish.

A recent study estimated the annual economic value of seagrass at $3,500 per hectare (2.5 acres), Fourqurean said.

“Seagrass beds are at least as economically and ecologically important as tropical forests or coral reefs,” he said.

The study, by a team of scientists from the United States, Australia and Spain, found that 29 percent of known seagrass meadows have disappeared since 1879. Over the entire 130-year period, seagrass was lost at a rate of 1.5 percent per year.

An estimated 19,690 square miles (51,000 square km) of seagrass has been lost since 1879 of a total estimated area of 68,350 square miles (177,000 square km), the researchers said.

“Globally, we lose a seagrass meadow the size of a soccer field every thirty minutes,” said co-author William Dennison of the University of Maryland.

The scientists said 45 percent of the world’s population lives on 5 percent of its land adjacent to the coast.

In the early 20th century, heavy seagrass losses were noted in North America and Europe, where the industrial revolution led to rapid coastal development.

Today, population growth in the regions bordering the Pacific and Indian Oceans are likely leading to the heaviest losses of seagrass, but those regions lack the scientific infrastructure to assess the loss, Fourqurean said.

He said mitigation efforts have had some success in saving and restoring seagrass. For example, in Florida, where treated sewage water is often dumped in the ocean, water managers in Tampa changed their method of treating wastewater and failing seagrasses rebounded.

(Editing by Mohammad Zargham)

Studies Predict Rapid Rise in Sea Levels Along U.S. East Coast

 

By David A. Fahrenthold
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 5, 2009 11:12 AM

 

Sea levels could rise faster along the U.S. East Coast than in any other densely populated part of the world, new research shows, as changes in ice caps and ocean currents push water toward a shoreline inlaid with cities, resort boardwalks and gem-rare habitats.

Three studies this year, including one out last week, have made newly worrisome forecasts about life along the Atlantic over the next century. While the rest of the world might see seven to 23 inches of sea-level rise by 2100, the studies show this region might get that and more — 17 to 25 inches more — for a total increase that would submerge a beach chair.

Might.

Scientists say the information comes from computer models, which could be wrong. And the mid-Atlantic region’s ample high ground means it will probably never be as vulnerable as Louisiana and Florida.

But some are already sketching a new vision for the East Coast, as a region under siege by the ocean. In the coming decades, they say, it will probably be necessary to spend heavily to defend some waterside places — and to make hard choices about where to let the sea win.

“There will probably be some very difficult decisions that have to be made,” said Rob Thieler, a scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey. “Are there places where we should simply retreat because the cost of holding the line is unacceptably high?”

Today, the governors of coastal states from New York to Virginia are scheduled to release an agreement on Atlantic Ocean issues, including the need to prepare for sea-level rise. The governors will pledge to identify places and facilities most vulnerable to high water, including port areas, parts of the power grid and other infrastructure.

Researchers say rising seas are one of the most tangible consequences of a changing climate. They rise because they are warming, expanding in volume like a highway bridge on a summer day. And they rise because they are filling up, fed by melting ice.

In the 20th century, global seas rose about 0.07 inches per year — a steady climb up tide gauges, even as the world debated the existence and the science of climate change.

“It doesn’t matter who’s causing global warming. Sea-level rise is something we can measure,” said Rob Young, a geosciences professor at Western Carolina University. “You can’t argue that sea level isn’t rising.”

And it has been rising faster in the mid-Atlantic because the land here is sinking.

Understanding this phenomenon requires thinking of the Earth as an enormous balloon. Push down in one spot on the ball’s surface and surrounding areas are raised up. Glaciers did this to Earth’s surface during the last ice age: They pressed down on northern North America and areas to the south tilted up, like the other end of a seesaw. Today, thousands of years after the glaciers retreated, the seesaw is tipping back the other way, and the region from New York to North Carolina is falling about six inches per century.

Researchers are finding that climate change could bring new bad luck by untracking a system of ocean currents that performs the astounding feat of keeping the sea here below the average sea level.

They say it works like this: Warm water from the south Atlantic flows north along the coast, cools off and sinks. That sinking happens on such a vast scale that the Atlantic’s surface is lower here, a depression in the ocean 28 inches deep. But two new studies have shown that climate change could make northern waters warmer and could dump a disruptive flood of freshwater from melting glaciers in Greenland.

“You’re getting less sinking, because [freshwater] is less heavy, it doesn’t sink as much. That kind of slows down this whole conveyor- belt thing,” said Gerald Meehl, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado whose study of this phenomenon came out last week.

“You’d get an additional one or two feet over this global sea-level rise” along parts of the coast, Meehl said, an effect that would be strongest in the Northeast.

Another study last month found a threat from a Texas-size ice sheet in Antarctica. If it broke off and melted, the shift of mass from pole to ocean would change both Earth’s gravitational field and its rotation.

The result? Still more water would slosh to the U.S. Atlantic Coast, along with the Pacific Coast. But in this case, it would probably not happen for centuries.

Scientists concede that these predictions could be flawed or flat wrong.

Even if they are right, New York still isn’t in the same danger as New Orleans. Even a yard of sea-level rise, they say, would not put any major East Coast cities underwater. But higher waters would mean bigger storm surges, a greater chance of flooding on rivers such as the Potomac or the Patapsco in Baltimore.

It could be a much bigger problem for barrier islands and marshes, which are typically just a few inches above the water. Even before the recent research forecast accelerating rise, Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge — a rare, vast marsh on Maryland’s Eastern Shore — was predicted to become mainly open water by 2030.

So some researchers have already begun thinking about how to defend the coast. Professors at the State University of New York at Stony Brook have suggested building barriers that might pop up during big storms and seal off the city’s water like a bathtub. The fishing port of New Bedford, Mass., has had such a “hurricane barrier” since the 1960s.

In the Washington region, Environmental Protection Agency official James G. Titus said that Hains Point, along the Southwest Waterfront, and K Street NW in Georgetown might have to be elevated. Sections of the waterfront Fells Point neighborhood in Baltimore might also need to be jacked up.

And, Titus said, rural areas along the water might have to be abandoned. On Maryland’s Eastern Shore, for instance, rising seas could eat up large sections of marshy Dorchester County.

A more uncertain fate awaits such places as Assateague Island, a celebrated nature preserve, or the Maryland and Delaware beach resorts. They sit on barrier islands, just a few feet above the water.

“If these sea-level-rise numbers . . . come to pass, then I think it’s pretty much a certainty” that these resorts would be abandoned, said Young, of Western Carolina University. “We’re going to be spending so much money protecting metropolitan areas that it’s hard to imagine we’d have enough left over to protect resort communities.”

For now, that idea is almost too big to think about for resort-town mayors.

In Dewey Beach, Del., Mayor Dell Tush said the town had been staggered by the $12,000-per-house cost of elevating just a few homes that are too close to the water.

“The town basically has no plans, you know, for doing anything” to prepare for rising seas, Tush said. To raise all the town’s houses “would be cost-prohibitive, it really would.”

The threat is more tangible at Joey’s Pizza and Pasta on Long Beach Island, N.J., another narrow, built-up barrier island. There, rain can bring Little Egg Harbor within a few feet of the door; a high tide and a good storm can put water in the dining room.

“You can’t fight it. People say ‘Sandbag the doors.’ No, it comes in everywhere,” said manager Tom Kowal. The restaurant makes light of its situation with a sign that says “Occasional Waterfront Dining.” But Kowal said he is worried about what’s coming.

“Ten inches higher than sea level right now? I’m underwater.”

Eat Healthy America: 52 Superfoods

Join WD’s initiative to help make healthy eating a lasting part of your
everyday
By Karen Ansel, RD Posted December 04, 2008 from Woman’s Day; January 1,
2009

Step into any supermarket and you’ll see thousands of labels shouting
good-health claims: Whole grains! No trans fats! Essential vitamins and
minerals! But figuring out what really is part of a healthy diet is getting
harder and harder in these days of information overload. And it shows in
the sobering statistics: 66% of Americans are overweight or obese—which
is a big reason more of us are developing diseases such as diabetes, and at
younger ages.

That’s why Woman’s Day is launching a yearlong series, Eat Healthy
America. Our goal is to make healthy eating a no-brainer. In every issue,
you’ll find easy ideas and advice that’ll help you make smart choices,
plan balanced (and great-tasting) meals, get a grip on portions, and more.
We’ll also prompt you to take small, doable steps that will help you eat
better for good.

Start here: Clean out your kitchen, tossing as many unhealthy items as you
can. Single-ingredient foods— apples, chicken, cooking oil, etc.—are
keepers. Packaged foods with long lists of hard-to-pronounce ingredients go
out, especially if they contain more than 7% of calories from saturated fat
or more than 10% of calories from sugar. Now, turn the page and find out
what you’ve made room for!

52 Superfoods

Fill up on these nutrient packed foods, which can help you fight disease.
Feel more energetic and even lose weight.

1 Eggs Each egg has 6 grams of protein but just 72 calories. No wonder
researchers at Pennington Biomedical Research Center in Baton Rouge,
Louisiana, found that eating eggs for breakfast (as part of a low-cal diet)
helps you slim down.

2 Tomato sauce It’s loaded with lycopene, which makes your skin look
younger and keeps your heart healthy. In fact, a Harvard study found that
women with the most lycopene in their blood reduced their risk of a heart
attack by 34%.

3 Dried plums(prunes) They’re packed with polyphenols, plant chemicals
that have been shown to boost bone density by stimulating your
bone-building cells.

4 Walnuts Just 14 walnut halves provide more than twice your daily dose of
alpha-linolenic acid, an omega-3 fat that’s been shown to improve memory
and coordination.

5 Brussels sprouts They have more glucosinolates (compounds that combat
cancer and detoxify our bodies) than any other vegetable. For a side dish
that will make you wonder why you’ve been avoiding them, slice each one
into quarters, then sauté in olive oil with chopped sweet Vidalia onions.

6 Acai juice A glass or two of this anthocyanin-rich berry juice can
dramatically boost the amount of antioxidants in your blood, say Texas A&M
University researchers.

7 Apples They contain quercetin, an antioxidant that may reduce your risk
of lung cancer.

8 Bok choy This calcium-rich veggie can protect your bones and may even
ward off PMS symptoms.

9 Steel-cut oats Because they’re less processed than traditional oats,
they’re digested more slowly—keeping you full all morning long.

10 Salmon You’ll get all the heart-smart omega-3s you need in a day from
just 3 oz.

11 Avocados Their healthy fat keeps you satisfied and helps you absorb
other nutrients. For a new u twist, brush a halved avocado (pit removed)
with olive oil and grill 1 minute. Serve with red onion, sliced grapefruit
and balsamic vinegar.

12 Spinach A half-cup provides more than five times your daily dose of
vitamin K, which helps blood clot and builds strong bones.

13 Canned pumpkin It’s filled with natural cancer fighters alpha- and
beta-carotene.

14 Cauliflower White foods can be good for you! This one is packed with
cancer-fighting glucosinolates.

15 Scallops A 3-oz serving has 14 grams of protein but just 75 calories.

16 Collard greens They’re exploding with nutrients like vitamin A,
zeaxanthin and lutein, which keep your eyes healthy.

17 Olives They deliver the same heart-healthy monounsaturated fat you get
in olive oil, but for just 7 calories per jumbo olive!

18 Brown rice It’s a top source of magnesium, a mineral your body uses
for more than 300 chemical reactions (such as building bones and converting
food to energy).

19 Oysters These keep your immune system strong. A 3-oz serving (about 6
oysters) dishes up a quarter of your daily iron, plus nearly twice the zinc
and all the selenium you need in a day.

20 Edamame One cup has a whopping 22 grams of plant protein, as well as
lots of fiber, folate and cholesterol-lowering phytosterols.

21 Strawberries They’re loaded with ellagitannins, phytochemicals that
may halt the growth of cervical and colon cancers.

22 Lentils A great source of meat-free protein, a half-cup of cooked
lentils also gives you nearly half your daily folate, a B vitamin that
protects a woman’s unborn baby from neural tube defects.

23 Bran flakes Their whole grains keep your heart in tip-top shape by
reducing inflammation and melting away belly fat.

24 Kiwi Italian researchers found that it reduces asthma-related wheezing,
thanks to its high vitamin C content (one kiwi has 110% of your daily
requirement).

25 Black beans They’re loaded with protein, fiber, and
flavonoids—antioxidants that help your arteries stay relaxed and pliable.

26 Sunflower seeds A quarter-cup delivers half your day’s vitamin E,
which keeps your heart healthy and fights infection.

27 Sardines 3 oz provide more than 100% of your daily vitamin D. Sardines
are also a top source of omega-3 fats. Try adding mashed canned sardines to
marinara sauce and serving over whole-wheat pasta.

28 Asparagus A half-cup supplies 50% of your daily bone-building vitamin K
and a third of your day’s folate, it’s a natural diuretic so it
banishes bloating, too.

29 Bananas They’re loaded with several kinds of good-for-you fiber,
including resistant starch (which helps you slim down).

30 Broccoli sprouts They have 10 times more of the cancer-preventing
compound glucoraphanin than regular broccoli.

31 Fat-free milk With a third of the calcium and half the vitamin D you
need in a day, plus 8 grams u of muscle-building protein, it’s the
ultimate energy drink.

32 Baked potatoes Each one packs a megadose of blood-pressure–lowering
potassium—even more than a banana.

33 Sweet potatoes Half of a large baked sweet potato delivers more than
450% of your daily dose of vitamin A, which protects your vision and your
immune system.

34 Flaxseed Not only is flaxseed loaded with plant omega-3s, it also has
more lignans (compounds that may prevent endometrial and ovarian cancer)
than any other food. Store ground flaxseed in your refrigerator and
sprinkle on yogurt, cold cereal or oatmeal.

35 Greek yogurt It has twice the protein of regular yogurt.

36 Dried tart cherries Researchers at Michigan State University found their
potent anthocyanins help control blood sugar, reduce insulin and lower
cholesterol.

37 Wheat germ A quarter-cup gives you more than 40% of your daily vitamin E
and immune-boosting selenium.

38 Whole-wheat english muffins You get 4 ½ grams of fiber for only 134
calories.

39 Tea Both green and black tea prevent hardening of the arteries,
according to researchers at the University of Scranton.

40 Peanut butter This smart spread has arginine, an amino acid that helps
keep blood vessels healthy.

41 Blackberries The king of the berry family boasts more antioxidants than
strawberries, cranberries or blueberries.

42 Mustard greens These “greens” (actually a cruciferous veggie) are a
top source of vitamin K. For a tasty pesto, chop them in a food processor
with garlic, walnuts, Parmesan and olive oil.

43 Grapes They’re a leading source of resveratrol, the plant chemical
responsible for the heart-healthy benefits of red wine.

44 Soy milk A good source of vegetable protein, calcium-enriched soy milk
has as much calcium and vitamin D as cow’s milk.

45 Brazil nuts They have more selenium than any other food. One nut
delivers your entire day’s worth!

46 Canola oil A Tbsp of this heart-healthy oil has all the alpha-linolenic
acid you need in a day, plus two different forms of vitamin E.

47 Blueberries They improve memory by protecting your brain from
inflammation and boosting communication between brain cells.

48 Oranges One orange supplies more than 100% of the vitamin C you need in
a day. It’s also a good source of calcium and folate.

49 Watercress With just 4 calories per cup, this cruciferous veggie
delivers a hefty dose of vitamin K, zeaxanthin, lutein, beta-carotene and
cancer-fighting phytochemicals.

50 Turkey breast It has 20 grams of satisfying protein but just 90 calories
per 3-oz serving.

51 Barley A top source of beta-glucan, a fiber that lowers cholesterol and
helps control blood sugar.

52 Shiitake mushrooms One serving (about ¼ lb) provides as much vitamin D
as you’d get from a glass of milk.

Global Food Catastrophe:20-40% down

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2009

 *****Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production*****

 by Eric deCarbonnel

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/02/2009-global-food-catastrophe.html

After reading about the droughts in two major agricultural countries, China and Argentina, I decided to research the extent other food producing nations were also experiencing droughts. This project ended up taking a lot longer than I thought. 2009 looks to be a humanitarian disaster around much of the world

To understand the depth of the food Catastrophe that faces the world this year, consider the graphic below depicting countries by USD value of their agricultural output, as of 2006.

Now, consider the same graphic with the countries experiencing droughts highlighted.

The countries that make up two thirds of the world’s agricultural output are experiencing drought conditions. Whether you watch a video of the drought in China, Australia, Africa, South America, or the US, the scene will be the same: misery, ruined crop, and dying cattle. China

The drought in Northern China, the worst in 50 years, is worsening, and summer harvest is now threatened. The area of affected crops has expanded to 161 million mu (was 141 million last week), and 4.37 million people and 2.1 million livestock are facing drinking water shortage. The scarcity of rain in some parts of the north and central provinces is the worst in recorded history. The drought which started in November threatens over half the wheat crop in eight provinces – Hebei, Shanxi, Anhui, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi and Gansu.

Henan

China’s largest crop producing province, Henan, has issued the highest-level drought warning. Henan has received an average rainfall of 10.5 millimeters since November 2008, almost 80 percent less than in the same period in the previous years. The Henan drought, which began in November, is the most severe since 1951.

Anhui

Anhui Province issued a red drought alert, with more than 60 percent of the crops north of the Huaihe River plagued by a major drought.

Shanxi

Shanxi Province was put on orange drought alert on Jan. 21, with one million people and 160,000 heads of livestock are facing water shortage. Jiangsu Jiangsu province has already lost over one fifth of the wheat crops affected by drought. Local agricultural departments are diverting water from nearby rivers in an emergency effort to save the rest.

Hebei

Over 100 million cubic meters of water has been channeled in from outside the province to fight Hebei’s drought.

Shaanxi

1.34 million acres of crops across the bone-dry Shanxi province are affected by the worsening drought. Shandong Since last November, Shandong province has experienced 73 percent less rain than the same period in previous years, with little rainfall forecast for the future.

Relief efforts are under way. The Chinese government has allocated 86.7 billion yuan (about $12.69 billion) to drought-hit areas. Authorities have also resorted to cloud-seeding, and some areas received a sprinkling of rain after clouds were hit with 2,392 rockets and 409 cannon shells loaded with chemicals. However, there is a limit to what can be done in the face of such widespread water shortage.

As I have previously written, China is facing hyperinflation, and this record drought will make things worse. China produces 18% of the world’s grain each year.

Australia

Australia has been experiencing an unrelenting drought since 2004, and 41 percent of Australia’s agriculture continues to suffer from the worst drought in 117 years of record-keeping. The drought has been so severe that rivers stopped flowing, lakes turned toxic, and farmers abandoned their land in frustration:

A) The Murray River stopped flowing at its terminal point, and its mouth has closed up. B) Australia’s lower lakes are evaporating, and they are now a meter (3.2 feet) below sea level. If these lakes evaporate any further, the soil and the mud system below the water is going to be exposed to the air. The mud will then acidify, releasing sulfuric acid and a whole range of heavy metals. After this occurs, those lower lake systems will essentially become a toxic swamp which will never be able to be recovered. The Australian government’s only options to prevent this are to allow salt water in, creating a dead sea, or to pray for rain.

For some reason, the debate over climate change is essentially over in Australia.

The United States

California

California is facing its worst drought in recorded history. The drought is predicted to be the most severe in modern times, worse than those in 1977 and 1991. Thousands of acres of row crops already have been fallowed, with more to follow. The snowpack in the Northern Sierra, home to some of the state’s most important reservoirs, proved to be just 49 percent of average. Water agencies throughout the state are scrambling to adopt conservation mandates.

Texas

The Texan drought is reaching historic proportion. Dry conditions near Austin and San Antonio have been exceeded only once before—the drought of 1917-18. 88 percent of Texas is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and 18 percent of the state is in either extreme or exceptional drought conditions. The drought areas have been expanding almost every month. Conditions in Texas are so bad cattle are keeling over in parched pastures and dying. Lack of rainfall has left pastures barren, and cattle producers have resorted to feeding animals hay. Irreversible damage has been done to winter wheat crops in Texas. Both short and long-term forecasts don’t call for much rain at all, which means the Texas drought is set to get worse.

Augusta Region (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina)

The Augusta region has been suffering from a worsening two year drought. Augusta’s rainfall deficit is already approaching 2 inches so far in 2009, with January being the driest since 1989.

Florida

Florida has been hard hit by winter drought, damaging crops, and half of state is in some level of a drought.

La Niña likely to make matters worse

Enough water a couple of degrees cooler than normal has accumulated in the eastern part of the Pacific to create a La Niña, a weather pattern expected to linger until at least the spring. La Niña generally means dry weather for Southern states, which is exactly what the US doesn’t need right now.

South America

Argentina

The worst drought in half a century has turned Argentina’s once-fertile soil to dust and pushed the country into a state of emergency. Cow carcasses litter the prairie fields, and sun-scorched soy plants wither under the South American summer sun. Argentina’s food production is set to go down a minimum of 50 percent, maybe more. The country’s wheat yield for 2009 will be 8.7 million metric tons, down from 16.3 million in 2008. Concern with domestic shortages (domestic wheat consumption being approximately 6.7 million metric ton), Argentina has granted no new export applications since mid January.

Brazil

Brazil has cut its outlook for the crops and will do so again after assessing damage to plants from desiccation in drought-stricken regions. Brazil is the world’s second-biggest exporter of soybeans and third-largest for corn. Brazil’s numbers for corn harvesting: Harvested in 2008: 58.7 million tons January 8 forecast: 52.3 million tons February 6 forecast: 50.3 metric tons (optimistic) Harvested in 2009: ???

Paraguay

Severe drought affecting Paraguay’s economy has pushed the government to declare agricultural emergency. Crops that have direct impact on cattle food are ruined, and the soy plantations have been almost totally lost in some areas.

Uruguay

Uruguay declared an “agriculture emergency” last month, due to the worst drought in decades which is threatening crops, livestock and the provision of fresh produce. The a worsening drought is pushing up food and beverage costs causing Uruguay’s consumer prices to rise at the fastest annual pace in more than four years in January. Bolivia There hasn’t been a drop of rain in Bolivia in nearly a year. Cattle dying, crops ruined, etc…

Chile

The severe drought affecting Chile has caused an agricultural emergency in 50 rural districts, and large sectors of the economy are concerned about possible electricity rationing in March. The countries woes stem from the “La Niña” climate phenomenon which has over half of Chile dangling by a thread: persistently cold water in the Pacific ocean along with high atmospheric pressure are preventing rain-bearing fronts from entering central and southern areas of the country. As a result, the water levels at hydroelectric dams and other reservoirs are at all-time lows.

Horn of Africa

Africa faces food shortages and famine. Food production across the Horn of Africa has suffered because of the lack of rainfall. Also, half the agricultural soil has lost nutrients necessary to grow plant, and the declining soil fertility across Africa is exacerbating drought related crop losses.

Kenya

Kenya is the worst hit nation in the region, having been without rainfall for 18 months. Kenya needs to import food to bridge a shortfall and keep 10 million of its people from starvation. Kenya’s drought suffering neighbors will be of little help.

Tanzania

 A poor harvest due to drought has prompted Tanzania to stop issuing food export permits. Tanzania has also intensified security at the border posts to monitor and prevent the export of food. There are 240,000 people in need of immediate relief food in Tanzania.

Burundi

Crops in the north of Burundi have withered, leaving the tiny East African country facing a severe food shortage

Uganda

Severe drought in northeastern Uganda’s Karamoja region has the left the country on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe. The dry conditions and acute food shortages, which have left Karamoja near starvation, are unlikely to improve before October when the next harvest is due.

South Africa

South Africa faces a potential crop shortage after wheat farmers in the eastern part of the Free State grain belt said they were likely to produce their lowest crop in 30 years this year. South Africans are “extremely angry” that food prices continue to rise. Other African nations suffering from drought in 2009 are: Malawi, Zambia, Swaziland, Somalia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Tunisia, Angola, and Ethiopia.

Middle East and Central Asia

The Middle East and Central Asia are suffering from the worst droughts in recent history, and food grain production has dropped to some of the lowest levels in decades. Total wheat production in the wider drought-affected region is currently estimated to have declined by at least 22 percent in 2009. Owing to the drought’s severity and region-wide scope, irrigation supplies from reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater have been critically reduced. Major reservoirs in Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria are all at low levels requiring restrictions on usage. Given the severity of crop losses in the region, a major shortage of planting seed for the 2010 crop is expected.

Iraq

In Iraq during the winter grain growing period, there was essentially no measurable rainfall in many regions, and large swaths of rain-fed fields across northern Iraq simply went unplanted. These primarily rain-fed regions in northern Iraq are described as an agricultural disaster area this year, with wheat production falling 80-98 percent from normal levels. The USDA estimates total wheat production in Iraq in 2009 at 1.3 million tons, down 45 percent from last year.

Syria

Syria is experienced its worst drought in the past 18 years, and the USDA estimates total wheat production in Syria in 2009 at 2.0 million tons, down 50 percent from last year. Last summer, the taps ran dry in many neighborhoods of Damascus and residents of the capital city were forced to buy water on the black market. The severe lack of rain this winter has exacerbated the problem.

Afghanistan

Lack of rainfall has led Afghanistan to the worst drought conditions in the past 10 years. The USDA estimates 2008/09 wheat production in Afghanistan at 1.5 million tons, down 2.3 million or 60 percent from last year. Afghanistan normally produces 3.5-4.0 million tons of wheat annually.

Jordan

Jordan’s persistent drought has grown worse, with almost no rain falling on the kingdom this year. The Jordanian government has stopped pumping water to farms to preserve the water for drinking purposes.

Other Middle Eastern and Central Asian nations suffering from drought in 2009 are: The Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, Israel, Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Thailand, Nepal, Pakistan, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Cyprus, and Iran.

Lack of credit will worsen food shortage

A lack of credit for farmers curbed their ability to buy seeds and fertilizers in 2008/2009 and will limit production around the world. The effects of droughts worldwide will also be amplified by the smaller amount of seeds and fertilizers used to grow crops. Low commodity prices will worsen food shortage The low prices at the end of 2008 discouraged the planting of new crops in 2009. In Kansas for example, farmers seeded nine million acres, the smallest planting for half a century. Wheat plantings this year are down about 4 million acres across the US and about 1.1 million acres in Canada. So even discounting drought related losses, the US, Canada, and other food producing nations are facing lower agricultural output in 2009.

Europe will not make up for the food shortfall

Europe, the only big agricultural region relatively unaffected by drought, is set for a big drop in food production. Due to the combination of a late plantings, poorer soil conditions, reduced inputs, and light rainfall, Europe’s agricultural output is likely to fall by 10 to 15 percent. Stocks of foodstuff are dangerously low Low stocks of foodstuff make the world’s falling agriculture output particularly worrisome.

 The combined averaged of the ending stock levels of the major trading countries of Australia, Canada, United States, and the European Union have been declining steadily in the last few years:

2002-2005: 47.4 million tons

2007: 37.6 million tons

2008: 27.4 million tons

These inventory numbers are dangerously low, especially considering the horrifying possibility that China’s 60 million tons of grain reserves doesn’t actually exists.

Global food Catastrophe

The world is heading for a drop in agricultural production of 20 to 40 percent, depending on the severity and length of the current global droughts. Food producing nations are imposing food export restrictions. Food prices will soar, and, in poor countries with food deficits, millions will starve. The deflation debate should end now The droughts plaguing the world’s biggest agricultural regions should end the debate about deflation in 2009. The demand for agricultural commodities is relatively immune to developments in the business cycles (at least compared to that of energy or base metals), and, with a 20 to 40 percent decline in world production, already rising food prices are headed significantly higher. In fact, agricultural commodities NEED to head higher and soon, to prevent even greater food shortages and famine. The price of wheat, corn, soybeans, etc must rise to a level which encourages the planting of every available acre with the best possible fertilizers. Otherwise, if food prices stay at their current levels, production will continue to fall, sentencing millions more to starvation.

Competitive currency appreciation

Some observers are anticipating “competitive currency devaluations” in addition to deflation for 2009 (nations devalue their currencies to help their export sector). The coming global food shortage makes this highly unlikely. Depreciating their currency in the current environment will produce the unwanted consequence of boosting exports—of food. Even with export restrictions like those in China, currency depreciation would cause the outflow of significant quantities of grain via the black market. Instead of “competitive currency devaluations”, spiking food prices will likely cause competitive currency appreciation in 2009.

Foreign exchange reserves exist for just this type of emergency. Central banks around the world will lower domestic food prices by either directly selling off their reserves to appreciate their currencies or by using them to purchase grain on the world market. Appreciating a currency is the fastest way to control food inflation. A more valuable currency allows a nation to monopolize more global resources (ie: the overvalued dollar allows the US to consume 25% of the world’s oil despite having only 4% of the world’s population). If China were to selloff its US reserves, its enormous population would start sucking up the world’s food supply like the US has been doing with oil.

On the flip side, when a nation appreciates its currency and starts consuming more of the world’s resources, it leaves less for everyone else. So when china appreciates the yuan, food shortages worldwide will increase and prices everywhere else will jump upwards. As there is nothing that breeds social unrest like soaring food prices, nations around the world, from Russia, to the EU, to Saudi Arabia, to India, will sell off their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and reduce the cost of food imports. In response to this, China will sell even more of its reserves and so on. That is competitive currency appreciation. When faced with competitive currency appreciation, you do NOT want to be the world’s reserve currency. The dollar is likely to do very poorly as central banks liquidate trillions in US holdings to buy food and appreciate their currencies.

Change:

Change is reality.

Change of oneself is real solution.

“Better than conquering thousand upon thousand is conquering one self. It is the true conqueror.” Buddha

Eyeless in Gaza

www.spiritofpeace.info/sophia

Blinded in Gaza, in the World is

Blinded in Ego, in the ego world!

Beyond ego is blissful limitless life.

One Billion Hungry

Year of the hungry: 1,000,000,000 afflicted
http://www.independ ent.co.uk/ news/world/ politics/ year-of-the- hungry-10000000
00-afflicted- 1213843.html
By Geoffrey Lean
Sunday, 28 December 2008

Despite the West’s pledge to halve world hunger, the number of people who
are short of food will soon reach a shocking landmark

One billion people will go hungry around the globe next year for the first
time in human history, as the international financial crisis deepens, the
United Nations has told The Independent on Sunday.

The shocking landmark will be passed despite a second record worldwide
harvest in a row because people are becoming too destitute to buy the
food that is produced.

Decades of progress in reducing hunger are being abruptly reversed, dealing
a devastating blow to a pledge by world leaders eight years ago to cut it
in half by 2015.

Rich countries have failed to provide promised money to boost agriculture
in the Third World; the financial crisis is starving developing countries
of credit and driving their people into greater poverty, and food aid to
the starving is expected to begin drying up next month.

Development charities recently called on US president-elect Barack Obama to
put the escalating food crisis “front and centre” of his priorities.

Some 963 million people are now undernourished worldwide, according to the
most recent survey of the crisis by the Food and Agriculture Organisation
(FAO), and the UN body expects the situation to worsen with the recession.
“The number will rise steadily next year,” an FAO spokesman told the IoS
last week. “We are looking at a billion people. That is clear.” The FAO
fears the tally will go on increasing for years to come.

This directly contradicts an undertaking by the world’s leaders at a
special summit in September 2000 to “reduce by half the proportion of
people who suffer from hunger” from 1990 levels by 2015, as part of an
ambitious set of Millennium Development Goals.

At the time, and for several years afterwards, the goal looked achievable,
if challenging. Between 1990 and 2005 the number of undernourished people
stayed more or less the same at between 800 and 850 million, even though
world population grew by 1.2 billion, meaning that the proportion of a
rapidly increasing humanity that went hungry was steadily falling.

Several countries including Ghana, Peru, Mexico, Chile, Jamaica and
Costa Rica actually exceeded the target years ahead of time, while
others such as Ethiopia, Nicaragua and Mozambique were on track to achieve
it. Twenty-five developing nations looked as if they would be able to halve
the absolute number of their hungry not just the proportion of them in
their rising populations by the target date.

But over the past three years that progress has been thrown abruptly into
reverse, with the first steep and sustained rise in hunger in decades
leaving another 115 million people short of food. The increase began when
prosperity was still increasing and has continued despite bumper harvests;
a new FAO report shows that this year’s grain crop is set to grow by 5.4
per cent to 2,241 million tons, following a 6 per cent rise last year
ahead of population growth.

So the growth in hunger is not occurring, as in the past, because of
shortage of food but because people cannot afford to buy it even when
it is plentiful. The main reason has been that high food prices have priced
the poor out of the market.

Over the 12 months until last summer, wheat and maize prices more than
doubled and rice prices more than tripled. This was due partly to the
growth in biofuels which, the FAO reports, has taken over 100 million tons
of cereals out of food supplies over the past year to fuel cars instead.
One fill of a 4×4’s tank uses enough grain to feed one poor person for a
year.

The organisation also blames speculation, population growth, the shrinking
of food stocks to record lows and the increasing consumption of meat in
developing countries such as China and India, which mops up grain supplies
because they are used to feed livestock.

International prices have fallen sharply since the summer, as this year’s
good harvest has further swelled supplies and the growing financial crisis
has cut demand. But the FAO reports that the lower prices have failed to
ease the crisis, while the increasing financial turmoil has made it worse.

Developing countries have not benefited from the falling worldwide cost of
food, it says, because their currencies have depreciated against the dollar
in which international prices are set and their domestic supplies remain
scarce, keeping prices in local markets at record levels.

Virtually none of the increased production of the past two years has taken
place in the Third World, partly because its farmers have been unable to
afford expensive fertilisers and seeds while the profits of giant
agrochemical and biotech companies have soared. Now as rich countries’
economies slump, they are importing fewer commodities and goods from
developing ones, driving national incomes down and increasing unemployment
and poverty. As employment falls in the West, Third World immigrants are
losing their jobs and are no longer able to send back the money they save
from their wages in remittances to their families, a financial boost that
is often crucial in keeping them out of dire poverty.

Just as serious, the FAO adds, the credit that Third World farmers need to
buy seeds, energy and agricultural chemicals and to improve production
is drying up.

Aid, too, is falling precipitously. Earlier this month, the World Food
Programme the UN agency that provides food to the hungry announced
that it was running out of supplies. Unless it receives more soon it
expects to have to start rationing aid next month, and to run out of food
altogether for needy countries such as Haiti, Sudan and Bangladesh by
March.

At a special summit in June last year, rich governments pledged $12.3bn
(￡8.4bn) to tackle the food crisis, but have so far handed over only $1bn
of it, as they have scrambled to provide trillions to bail out failing
banks.

“Overcoming the financial crisis is critical,” concludes the FAO in a
recent report, “but continuing the fight against hunger by realising those
pledged billions is no less important.” Jacques Diouf, the FAO’s director
general, warns: “Unless the political will and donor pledges are turned
into urgent and real actions, millions more will fall into deep poverty.”

Josette Sheeran, the executive director of the World Food Programme, added:
“While we worry about Wall Street and the high street, we are also paying
attention to the needs of those who live in places with no street.” She has
called on governments to devote just 1 per cent of their bailout and
stimulus packages to fighting hunger.

The worst is yet to come, taking the number of hungry beyond the one
billion mark. As food prices fall, the FAO is reporting signs that farmers
in Europe and North America are reducing their plantings for next year’s
harvest and the same thing is likely to happen in the Third World as
the lack of credit stops its farmers from being able to buy the food and
agricultural chemicals they need. So next year’s harvest, it is feared,
will be smaller, even if the weather remains good.

The run of good seasons is unlikely to continue for long, even in the short
run. And in the medium to long term, climate change is expected to make
harvests dramatically worse. Mr Diouf predicts that, if the world fails to
take urgent action to keep global warming beneath 2C, the emerging
international target, “the global food production potential can be expected
to contract severely” with harvests dropping by up to 40 per cent in
Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Global targets: a progress report

Goal one Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger between 1990 and 2015.

Progress 1.4 billion people live in extreme poverty, down from 42 per cent
of the world population in 1990 to 26 per cent in 2005. Up to 75 per cent
of the population is employed except in parts of Africa and Asia.
Undernourished under-fives dropped from 33 per cent in 1990 to 26 per cent
in 2006.

Success or failure? Still possible by 2015 but lack of progress in
sub-Saharan Africa, where workers earn less than $1 a day.

Goal two Universal primary education by 2015.

Progress 570 million children worldwide enrolled in school. Those not
enrolled fell from 103 million in 1999 to 73 million in 2006. Primary
school enrolment reached 88 per cent in 2006, up 5 per cent per cent from
2000.

Success or failure? 38 million children in sub-Saharan Africa are not
enrolled, while in southern Asia 18 million do not go to school. This goal
may not be achieved by 2015, and there are barriers on girls going to
school.

Goal three Promote gender equality in education by 2015 and empower women.

Progress 55 per cent of children not in school are girls. Women occupy
about 30 per cent of parliamentary seats in 20 countries. Women occupy 40
per cent of all paid jobs, up 5 per cent on 1990.

Success or failure? 113 countries failed to achieve equality of enrolment;
only 18 will meet the target. Since 2000, the proportion of women in
parliaments rose from 13.5 to 17.9 per cent.

Goal four Reduce child mortality of under-fives by two-thirds between 1990
and 2015.

Progress Deaths of under-fives declined from 93 to 72 deaths per 1,000 live
births between 1990 and 2006, and child deaths dropped below 10 million a
year in 2006.

Success or failure? Children born in developing countries still 13 times
more likely to die under five. Between 1990 and 2006, 26 countries made no
progress in reducing childhood deaths, while in 27 others the mortality
rate is flat or getting worse.

Goal five Improve maternal health and reduce mortality by two-thirds
between 1990 and 2015.

Progress Maternal mortality decreased by less than 1 per cent per year
between 1990 and 2005; 60 per cent of births were attended by health
professionals in 2006, up 10 per cent since 1990.

Success or failure? 500,000 women a year in developing countries die during
pregnancy. Worst progress of all goals.

Goal six Universal access to treatment for Aids/HIV by 2010 and reverse
spread of HIV/Aids and malaria by 2015.

Progress New HIV cases declined from three million a year in 2001 to 2.7
million in 2007. Funding increased tenfold within a decade. Mosquito net
production rose from 30 million in 2004 to 95 million in 2007.

Success or failure? 7,500 people a day infected with HIV; 5,500 die of
Aids-related illness; 500 million new cases of malaria a year.

Goal seven Reduce loss of biodiversity by 2010 and halve number of people
without access to safe water or sanitation by 2015.

Progress Deforestation declined to 7.3 million hectares a year; 1.6 billion
people have access to drinking water since 1990.

Success or failure? 40 per cent of the world lives with water scarcity, and
fish stocks are overexploited. One billion people still have no access to
safe drinking water and 2.5 billion have no access to basic sanitation, yet
target may still be achieved.

Goal eight Develop a global partnership for development.

Progress The UK is among the few nations to meet targets of giving 0.15 per
cent of gross national Income in aid. The burden of debt in developing
countries fell from 13 per cent of exports in 2000 to 7 per cent in 2006.

Success or failure? Aid dropped from ￡67bn in 2005 to ￡64bn in 2007 but
needs to increase by ￡18bn a year. A third of essential medicines are
available in 30 developing countries.

__._,_.___

 

 

Climate Change: Chasm Widens Between Science and Policy

Monday 15 December 2008

»

by: Stephen Leahy, Inter Press Service

 

Despite dire warnings from scientists and environmentalists, many regions remain unwilling to adopt necessary changes and standards to encourage a healthier climate. (Photo: greenpeace.org)

    Quebec City, Canada – The roof of our house is on fire while the leaders of our family sit comfortably in the living room below preoccupied with “political realities” – that was essentially the message from 1,000 scientists from around the world along with northern indigenous leaders gathered in Quebec City for the International Arctic Change conference that concluded last weekend.

    ”Climate change and its impacts are accelerating at unexpected rates with global consequences,” delegates warned in a statement.

    Presenting data from hundreds of studies and research projects detailing the Arctic region’s rapid meltdown and cascading ecological impacts, participants urged governments to take “immediate measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions”.

    By happy coincidence, 190 governments were meeting at the same time in Poznan, Poland to do just that: reach an agreement on how much to reduce emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Except that they decided to do nothing. They couldn’t even agree to help poorer nations survive the ever-worsening climate crisis by providing funds to strengthen infrastructure, build flood defences and improve agriculture.

    In chance hallway encounters in Quebec City, scientists – strictly off the record for fear of losing funding – said climate change is happening far faster and is having much larger impacts than they ever imagined.

    ”Climate change will be an overwhelming global tragedy without major reductions now,” said one Canadian expert.

    In Poznan, politicians declared the meeting a success and pledged to agree to cut emissions at next year’s meeting in Copenhagen.

    Meanwhile, the physics of carbon and climate will not wait for economic recovery or a more felicitous political climate.

    In 1992, the global community came together in Rio de Janeiro, agreed climate change was a real danger and promised to reduce their emissions of CO2 and other global warming gases. It took five years to create the first climate change treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, which committed rich countries to emissions reductions of five percent below their 1990 levels.

    Many countries will meet their very modest reduction targets – with notable exceptions like Canada and Japan, which are grossly over-target by 30 percent. But as far as the atmosphere is concerned, all that counts is global CO2 emissions, and they’ve skyrocketed.

    Emissions of CO2 have been growing about four times faster since 2000 than during the previous decade, despite efforts to curb emissions in a number of Kyoto Protocol signatory countries, reports the Global Carbon Project, an international collaboration of climate scientists.

    ”This new update of the carbon budget shows the acceleration of both CO2 emissions and atmospheric accumulation is unprecedented and most astonishing during a decade of intense international developments to address climate change,” said Pep Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project, in a statement last September.

    The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is well ahead of worst-case projections, hence the accelerating meltdown in the Arctic.

    Rather than panicking, governments of Arctic countries seem preoccupied with what they view as an opportunity to exploit the region for its potential energy resources, said Michael Byers, an international law expert at the University of British Columbia in Canada. “National governments don’t get it. We need to keep oil and gas where it is, in the ground,” Byers told IPS in Quebec City.

    Canada’s federal government led by Stephen Harper certainly doesn’t get it. In an assessment of performance on climate change released in Poznan by an international coalition of environmental groups, Canada ranked last amongst developed countries and was second only to Saudi Arabia of the 57 largest greenhouse-gas emitters regarding their performance in fighting climate change.

    During the Poznan climate talks, Canada was frequently cited for delaying and obstructing agreement during the negotiations. Copying the George W. Bush administration’s contempt for science, the Harper government refused to allow Canada’s leading government scientist on climate, Don MacIver, to go Poznan, even though he was scheduled to speak and his travel costs were paid for.

    Fearing continuing “house arrest” under the current government, MacIver has resigned his position as chair of conference organising at the World Meteorological Organisation.

    While governments fail to get it, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 stand at 383 parts per million (ppm) and are climbing at two to three ppm per year. Pre-industrial CO2 levels averaged 270 ppm and some climate experts are calling for the need to return to below 350 ppm to truly stabilise the planet.

    Three million years ago, when CO2 was estimated to be 400 ppm, new fossil evidence shows forests dominated the Arctic instead the ice, snow and permafrost. Sea levels were 24 meteres higher than today, according to the new study by the U.S. Geological Survey.

    In a contest between the relentless physics of climate change and continuing political paralysis, our home is doomed to burn to the ground. Many climate activists say that only a grassroots revolution, a global rebellion that overturns the fossil-fuel economic hegemony, will save us now.